Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 8.781660 10.106876 11.541877 13.208351 15.087419 17.137574 19.540638
2025-04-20 6.998657 8.815839 10.942431 13.602981 16.829586 20.602297 25.332879
2025-04-27 6.049243 8.075981 10.568350 13.836243 17.982772 23.041165 29.648091
2025-05-04 5.194847 7.313252 10.038141 13.764557 18.686818 24.919930 33.356382
2025-05-11 4.495144 6.633657 9.495827 13.556934 19.111626 26.375107 36.509689
2025-05-18 4.005556 6.170633 9.174553 13.580434 19.797101 28.160682 40.146662
2025-05-25 3.642889 5.837903 8.985251 13.742506 20.645813 30.172662 44.154865
2025-06-01 3.287518 5.472130 8.704744 13.732594 21.224225 31.812936 47.702979
2025-06-08 2.951222 5.096281 8.368206 13.598542 21.590761 33.145404 50.852014
2025-06-15 2.718621 4.857487 8.212763 13.712976 22.313159 35.004747 54.825393
2025-06-22 2.577800 4.752175 8.251639 14.120774 23.490485 37.575332 59.947896
2025-06-29 2.333386 4.446836 7.941638 13.945516 23.741033 38.751867 63.018334
2025-07-06 2.006471 3.969469 7.315533 13.219886 23.087921 38.533889 63.990577
2025-07-13 1.896247 3.868499 7.314931 13.530402 24.123044 40.988898 69.219853
2025-07-20 1.789022 3.760808 7.290622 13.792023 25.081871 43.354508 74.396157
2025-07-27 1.639962 3.558023 7.079729 13.710430 25.451512 44.779027 78.117460
2025-08-03 1.489200 3.335643 6.813352 13.506976 25.591961 45.822657 81.249344
2025-08-10 1.383030 3.191350 6.678821 13.529213 26.120229 47.525032 85.527609
2025-08-17 1.303495 3.093562 6.623615 13.691149 26.899709 49.678042 90.638862
2025-08-24 1.210802 2.958102 6.483624 13.681129 27.363056 51.303020 94.912609
2025-08-31 1.113073 2.801174 6.287626 13.547576 27.586983 52.514165 98.514500
2025-09-07 1.049080 2.712583 6.221911 13.661609 28.272972 54.558816 103.633313
2025-09-14 1.017632 2.695256 6.301422 14.068045 29.530087 57.668012 110.735785